Record 2025 performance in Canada
INTERNATIONAL REPORT – Canda’s hotel industry for full-year 2025 reported its highest annual top-line performance on record, according to CoStar data.
Occupancy was 66.1% (+0.7% YOY); ADR was CAD216.10 (+3.5% YOY); RevPAR was CAD142.89 (+4.2% YOY).
Among the provinces and territories, British Columbia reported the highest absolute levels in each of the key performance metrics: occupancy (70.4%), ADR (CAD257.03) and RevPAR (CAD180.92).
Quebec (-1.3%) and Ontario (-0.6%) were the only provinces to see a decline in occupancy, while all of the provinces and territories posted increases in ADR and RevPAR.
Among the major markets, Vancouver registered the highest absolute performance levels: occupancy (78.4%), ADR (CAD284.44) and RevPAR (CAD223.05). Vancouver, however, was the only market to see a decline in room rates (-0.1% to CAD284.44).
Montreal was the only market to record declines in occupancy (-4.5% to 66.6%) and RevPAR (-2.8% to CAD155.87).
Wall Street analysts who cover publicly traded hotel companies are entering the new year with some sense of optimism, but that outlook is largely in relation to the tough year hotels faced in 2025.
"Our outlook is things are less bad; the backdrop should be better," said Michael Bellisario, senior research analyst at Baird Capital. "That makes for a relatively good setup, especially in the first half."
He noted some of his optimism is founded on getting past difficult year-over-year comparisons. That was a similar takeaway for Truist managing director of lodging and leisure equity research C. Patrick Scholes, who also pointed to the timing of holidays this year as a major positive for the industry.
He noted the positive outlook is also based on the assumption of avoiding the major disruptions of 2025.
"This all is predicated on no further government shutdowns," he said. "Who knows what's going to come from Pennsylvania Avenue. That's the big risk here. But what's on the books now is pretty strong. It's actually really strong, right now."
Factors built into Wall Street assumptions include travel demand lift from the largest FIFA World Cup ever and a stronger outlook for consumer confidence and spending.
President Donald Trump "is tweeting things because it's a midterm election year, and I think he's throwing things on a wall and seeing what's sticking," Bellisario said. "But a lot of them are very good for consumers. A tariff dividend probably won't happen. [But] lower credit card fees, $200 billion of mortgage backed securities purchases [would be]. Mortgage rates already came in 22 basis points. There's lots of things that should add up to make the consumer have more dollars in their pocket, including these tax refunds that are coming here. So the setup is just better."
Scholes also pointed to "bigger tax refunds" as a travel stimulus. He said America 250 celebrations will also be a tailwind for travel, particularly in urban markets.
Overall, hotel C-corps, which are the brands, have been better poised for growth in the stock market in recent years, but there is at least some hope that hotel real estate investment trusts can show some promise in the new year.
Bellisario said "the broader health of capital markets" could help buoy REITs in 2026, but any turnaround will have to be looked at relative to recent years.
"We're still talking about, for the most part, expense growth exceeding revenue growth and margins down to flat," he said.
He called cycle dynamics "relatively unfavorable" for REITs with the one thing that could truly shake up the landscape would be mergers and acquisitions.
"Do we start to see some bigger transactions occur?" he asked.
Scholes said hotel REITs will remain challenged in terms of perception from larger real estate investment.
"You can see from years and years of underperforming stocks that these — especially from your traditional, long-holding real estate investors — are not even hated. It's sort of beyond hate. It's just ignored at this point. They don't even look" at hotel REITs, he said.
In terms of the brands, Scholes said 2026 could be the year where the gap between the haves and have-nots closes somewhat. That would mean better performance for companies like Choice Hotels International and Wyndham Hotels & Resorts, which have a lot of rooms in the economy chain scale.
He said Choice in particular was "given up for dead" by some investors. He recently upgraded the company to a buy though, due to stronger consumers and "all-time low valuation multiples."
"I think low-single-digit growth is pretty reasonable" for Choice in 2026, Scholes said.
The outlook for 2027 is still murky though, he said.
"The uncomfortable truth is, there's not a World Cup next year, nor is there going to be a 251st anniversary celebration," he said. "So let's enjoy the moment, right now. And you know, maybe come 2027 we start to get some government business coming back. Maybe you start to get international inbound, but we're not seeing it yet."
MADRID — European hotel owners hope to be net buyers in 2026, despite geopolitical headlines becoming noisier and potentially more unsettling.
Just in the last few days, European nations have banded together to oppose unwarranted U.S. pressure on its proposed acquisition of Greenland.
But hotel executives across Europe are focusing on what they can control, and chief among those disciplines is improving profitability.
David Kellett, Savills' head of hotel capital markets for Europe, Middle East and Africa, shared a list of challenges currently facing the region's hotel industry during a session at the Atlantic Ocean Hotel Investors’ Summit. These include group demand globally being down 20%; Amsterdam adding taxes on hotel rooms; U.S. outbound moving in different directions; and, CoStar's 2026 projections showing global hotel revenue per available forecast to grow only by 0.7%.
That RevPAR projection feels like one late in a cycle, Kellett added.
Operational costs are weightier, but the last half-decade has also seen the greatest jump in wealth of the luxury and ultra-luxury guest in history.
Andrew Katz, partner at Prospect Hotel Advisors, said his prediction for RevPAR growth is for between 1% and 2%.
“Our focus is on managing costs,” he said.
Gaël Le Lay, CEO and co-founder of Petra and Hova Hospitality, said he is focused on the medium term.
“We are cautious on growth, and there might be some limited decreases in some cities,” he said.
Consumer confidence will be among the biggest factors for how well the hotel industry does in 2026, said Cody Bradshaw, group CEO at London & Regional Hotels. There is cause for some optimism, with luxury hotel average daily rate and spend continuing to rise.
“The FTSE 100 recently broke its record high. … Luxury breaks record after record, but if this conference was in the U.S., it would be rough,” he said.
Bradshaw added that half of the top 25 markets in the U.S. aren't investable, with three years of negative RevPAR growth and no positivity in sight.
“Europe looks resilient. Yes, Germany has exposure of its [gross domestic product] to manufacturing. Spain is a shining star. I would say in my career, this is one of the hardest times in which to do underwriting,” Bradshaw said.
But Germany may have too much debt to make it a safe place to do hotel deals, said Tugdual Millet, CEO of Covivio Hotels.
“We forget that a lease is some form of debt. In Germany, [Covivio has] debt, but we are trying to rebalance the portfolio between north and south, and we are positive it will be a profitable year,” he said.
Bradshaw wondered if the prevalent German hotel business model of the lease has sufficient covenant strength behind it and whether hoteliers might soon see a redressing of such agreements.
German hotels might not see much international meetings, incentives, conventions and expositions business this year, Katz said.
“Last year saw some one-off events, for example, the National Football League coming to Berlin, but there are not as many such events in 2026,” he said.
Katz added that an analysis of costs can help offset poorer performance.
Bradshaw returned to signs of health within the stock exchanges, commenting that the best-performing stocks in Germany are in defense, “which is up 200%, so that might lead to some business.”
Hotel owners are also keeping an eye on interest rates, increased state regulation of tourism, business rates in the U.K. and city taxes such as those in Amsterdam and Edinburgh, Millet said.
Hotel occupancy in Edinburgh is very high, Bradshaw added.
"If [taxes] boost tourism, social conditions and housing occupancy and restricts Airbnb, then that is a pretty good trade,” he said.
AI in Madrid
Panelists said artificial intelligence technology is set to take on an even higher profile in Europe's hotel industry in 2026. The current landscape of AI and tech stocks led to discussion as to whether their pricing would see a correction, a concern due to their dominance on bourses.
Katz said owners and hoteliers are aware that consumers increasingly use AI to look where to visit and stay. Hotels have to compete, and traditionally hotels are slow off the market in such regard, he added.
“We are working closer with brands as to how to spend marketing dollars and attract people. Hotels need to improve their content,” he said.
Hotels still approach generative AI like search-engine optimization from 2000, Bradshaw said. He added up-to-date AI needs to extrapolate data from property- and customer-management systems and send data that is relevant to all hotel divisions.
"This is the big disruption coming to AI,” he said.
Panelists said hoteliers need to keep an eye on which tech firm is marrying AI and distribution, and that company will rise to the top.
The European hospitality industry’s owner-brand history over the past decade or so needs to be addressed, too, Bradshaw said. When hotel firms went asset-light, they then concentrated on select-service brands in the U.S. and China before focusing on credit cards and loyalty.
“The big brands are doing well, but owners are struggling and are saying, ‘Hey, you’re charging the same fees still,'” Bradshaw said.
Wyndham Hotels & Resorts has reached a deal with the Choctaw Nation of Oklahoma to add four resorts to its upscale and lifestyle offerings.
Under the agreement, four Choctaw Casinos & Resorts properties with nearly 2,000 rooms will join Wyndham’s portfolio, according to a news release. The Choctaw Casino & Resort-Durant is now part of the Wyndham Grand portfolio. The Choctaw Landing Casino & Resort-Hochatown, the Choctaw Casino & Resort–Pocola and the Choctaw Casino & Resort–Grant join the Trademark Collection by Wyndham.
The Choctaw Nation will retain ownership and continue to manage all four resorts.
"This aspirational affiliation represents everything today's travelers are asking for — exciting destinations, distinctive experiences and more meaningful ways to connect with the places they love,” Wyndham President and CEO Geoff Ballotti said in the release.
The agreement with Wyndham will elevate the hospitality experience for guests by combining Choctaw’s signature service, culture and entertainment with Wyndham’s global recognition, loyalty program and travel network, said Chief Gary Batton, Chief of the Choctaw Nation of Oklahoma, in the release.
“For Choctaw tribal members, it strengthens long-term economic sustainability — creating new career pathways, professional development opportunities and reinvestment into tribal programs and communities,” Batton said. “It is a strategic step that honors our values while positioning Choctaw for continued growth on a global stage."
The four Choctaw resorts will become available through Wyndham’s booking channels over the next several weeks, and they will also be available to members of Wyndham Business.
During Wyndham’s third-quarter 2025 earnings call, Ballotti said that even with the challenging demand conditions, the company wasn’t seeing any structural concerns for its hotels at the lower end of the chain scale, touting its booking lead times, consistent lengths of stay and improved cancellation rates. The advantage higher-end hotels have in the current environment is their ability to hold on to more pricing power, he said.
"Upscale hotels are able to price more aggressively to inflation than the lower chain scales where the guest is obviously more price-sensitive," he said.
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