ALIS: Conversions, bifurcation, the joy of fuzzy slippers
Bifurcation of sponsor
Zagging into record transactions
Fuzzy slippers and travel hacks
LOS ANGELES – Here’s the good news coming out of Day 1 of the Americas Lodging Investment Summit (ALIS): the newly released CoStar and Tourism Economics 2026-2027 U.S. hotel forecast moves the industry back from red to black ink this year with a projected .2% dip in occupancy and a 1.0% increase in ADR equating to 2026 RevPAR growth of 0.6% versus a 2025 RevPAR decline of 0.3%. The bad news: not everyone on stage at ALIS for “The Numbers” panel sees it that way. Kalibri’s Cindy Estis Green forecasts a 1.5% decline in occupancy and a .5% increase in rate equaling a 1.0% dip in RevPAR for 2026.
Looking a little deeper at the STR data, bifurcation is expected to continue with luxury properties projected to be up 3.2% year-over-year, upper upscale up 1.6%, while limited-service will be around -1%. Midscale is projected to come in around -1% and economy closer to -2%.
Kalibri said while the forecast -1.5% RevPAR decline, their upside is +1%, creating a midpoint at -0.25%.
Any way you want to slice it, uncertainty reigns with macro unpredictability and turbulence never being a recipe for success as discretionary travel always seems to suffer during uncertain times, according to Estis Green.
STR’s Isaac Collazo stated another truth: pressure on margins will continue as inflation outpaces rate growth. Collazo added that rate growth isn’t as robust as online travel agencies take share, corporate rate growth is flat and because a lion’s share of the volume is coming from the lower end of the market.
Back to the good news: the sky isn’t falling and it is up to owners and operators to make demand more profitable by better managing yield.
On supply growth, CoStar and Tourism Economics lowered their 2026 projections by 0.2 ppts, while demand was reduced by 0.1 ppts.
Collazo said construction will not widen in 2026 as the supply game remains mostly about conversions. He added that while there are still plenty of rooms in the pipeline, news construction only accounts for 19% of the entire pipeline – its lowest level since 2011 – with no signs of pending change in the new construction environment.
Back to performance, STR President Amanda Hite said in the STR/Tourism Economics release, “We expect top-line performance to strengthen in the second half of the year, although growth will remain moderate and concentrated among higher-tier hotels. The early months of that period will be highlighted by notable gains in World Cup host markets and their surrounding areas. In addition, calendar shifts will provide a lift, especially as we move past the elevated comparables from the 2024 hurricane-affected markets.”
Growth rates are projected to rise further in 2027, but even the forecasted 1.4% increase in RevPAR would remain below the long-term average (+3.0%).
“We expect a more supportive backdrop for U.S. travel in 2026,” said Aran Ryan, director of industry studies with Tourism Economics. “While a softer job market weighs on younger and lower-wage households, real wage gains and household wealth should keep consumer spending resilient. Business investment will broaden beyond AI as borrowing costs ease and tax incentives support new projects. International travel faces near-term headwinds but will likely see a gradual rebound as global demand strengthens and the World Cup boosts summer arrivals.”
“Total revenues are expected to rise at a faster pace than last year, while expenses should follow a similar trajectory—though at a slower rate of growth than in 2025,” Hite added. “Even so, expense growth will continue to outpace inflation.”
NATIONAL REPORT – Three big dogs, Marriott International, Hilton and Hyatt Hotels Corp. are making splashes at the start of ALIS 2026 by announcing some big numbers to support their growth stories.
Marriott is hosting a breakfast briefing for the press on Monday morning with CEO Tony Capuano holding court, while Hilton is hosting a party Monday night to further trumpet the rollout of their Outset Collection.
Hilton update
Hilton has reported some year-end 2025 development numbers, highlighted by 6.7% net unit growth, adding nearly 800 hotels and 100,000 rooms with conversions accounting for nearly 40% of openings. It also signed more than 1,000 new hotels in 2025, or almost 140,000 rooms, and now has more than 3,700 hotels under development, totaling more than 520,000 rooms.
Hilton said it has more rooms under construction than any other hotel company with approximately one in five rooms under construction globally slated to join the company's portfolio. It said outsized demand for luxury and lifestyle products continued to drive strong growth for the company’s development pipeline.
By adding markets such as Rwanda and Pakistan in 2025, Hilton now operates in 143 countries and territories worldwide.
Hilton welcomed more than 233 million guests to its properties last year, more than any year in its history, and surpassed the milestone of serving 4 billion guests worldwide since its founding.
“We continue to strengthen our network effect and strategically expand into destinations around the world,” said Hilton President and CEO Chris Nassetta. “We’re also adding new brands, with more to come in 2026... We expect net unit growth of 6–7% in 2026.”
Recent milestones: the launch of Apartment Collection by Hilton and Outset Collection by Hilton.
Apartment Collection by Hilton will offer furnished apartments, which will become available for booking through Hilton channels in the first half of 2026. The launch builds on Hilton’s existing global inventory of approximately 10,000 apartment-style units, adding as many as 3,000 new units through its partnership with Placemakr. Hilton expects to significantly grow its apartment-style inventory over the next few years through this new partnership and through additional franchise agreements with new owners in the multi-family segment.
In October, the company launched Outset Collection, a conversion-focused brand designed for independent hotels, which has more than 60 hotels already under development and long-term growth potential of more than 500 hotels across the United States and Canada alone.
Momentum in the luxury and lifestyle segment included the grand reopening of Waldorf Astoria New York, the first Waldorf Astoria hotels in Finland, Japan and Costa Rica, and major signings such as NoMad Hotels in Detroit and Singapore.
Hilton’s lifestyle hotels also launched in several new countries, including the first Canopy by Hilton hotel in South Africa and the first Curio Collection by Hilton hotel in Thailand.
More than 1,000 luxury and lifestyle hotels now operate in Hilton’s portfolio globally, with more than 200 new properties added in 2025.
ACME Hotel Chicago is joining Outset Collection by Hilton.
Marriott update
Marriott International said it grew net rooms over 4.3% in 2025, adding more than 700 properties and nearly 100,000 rooms. This included over 630 properties added through organic deals, representing more than 89,000 rooms.
Ending the year with approximately 610,000 rooms in the pipeline, a 5.7% year-over-year increase, Marriott signed nearly 1,200 organic deals (163,000 rooms) globally in 2025.
In the Caribbean and Latin America (CALA) region, Marriott signed a record 94 deals; its Asia Pacific excluding China (APEC) region saw an all-time high of 187 deals; and in Greater China (GC), the company signed a record 201 deals.
With nearly 400 deals in 2025 encompassing more than 50,800 rooms, conversions represented over 30% of annual organic rooms signing. Around 75% of conversion openings in 2025 occurred within 12 months of signing.
In July, the company completed its acquisition of the citizenM brand, and the portfolio was integrated on Marriott’s platforms in the fourth quarter, adding more than 35 hotels and nearly 9,000 rooms.
In May, Marriott introduced Series by Marriott, a global collection brand for the midscale and upscale lodging segments. Anchored by a founding multi-unit deal in India, the brand opened 37 properties (approximately 2,600 rooms) in 23 cities across that country by year-end 2025. Scaling the brand for global growth, the company also signed 13 agreements in 2025 to bring Series by Marriott to the U.S. and Canada and opened two of those hotels in the fourth quarter.
Marriott also celebrated the official launch of Outdoor Collection by Marriott Bonvoy, which closed the year with over 30 open properties.
Midscale brand City Express by Marriott, StudioRes and Four Points Flex by Sheraton closed the year with 216 open properties (approximately 27,000 rooms) and over 250 properties in the pipeline, representing over 50% year-over-year growth for the segment’s open and pipeline portfolio.
City Express by Marriott, which saw the third highest global signings in the company’s portfolio in 2025, ended the year with 158 open properties and 150 in the pipeline. The brand also reached more than 100 total agreements in U.S. and Canada since its introduction to the region in 2024.
StudioRes, the company’s extended-stay midscale brand, celebrated its first opening in Fort Myers, Florida, only about 18 months after groundbreaking. At year-end, the had four open properties with 85 in the pipeline.
Four Points Flex by Sheraton, a conversion-friendly midscale brand offered in APEC and EMEA, represented the company’s fastest‑growing brand in Europe, and closed the year with 54 open properties and 22 in the pipeline.
Marriott signed a record-breaking 114 luxury deals (15,301 rooms), representing nearly 10% of the company’s organic signings in the year. The company closed the year with 296 hotels and resorts (approximately 60,000 rooms) in the luxury pipeline.
EMEA represented the company’s highest growth region for luxury with a record 40 signed deals. JW Marriott saw the highest number of signed agreements with 27 deals (representing nearly 7,000 rooms).
Marriott also opened 10 luxury resorts, representing 1,400 rooms and 25% of 2025 luxury room openings.
Finally, Marriott signed a record-breaking 55 residential deals, a 50% year over year increase, and closed the year with 149 open locations and 175 in the pipeline.
Hyatt news
Hyatt Hotels Corp. announced a new record pipeline of approximately 148,000 rooms as of year-end 2025, contributing to a 7% increase in Hyatt’s pipeline compared to 2024.
Hyatt saw particularly strong signings activity in the United States and Asia Pacific. In the U.S., Hyatt secured its highest number of signings in five years, increasing signings by 30% compared to 2024, with 50% of these deals representing new markets for Hyatt. Of Hyatt’s pipeline in the U.S., more than 80% represent new builds. With the recent introduction of conversion-friendly brands like Hyatt Select and collection-style brands like Unscripted by Hyatt, Hyatt expects to see a greater number of conversions in the years ahead.
Hyatt grew its Essentials portfolio pipeline in Greater China by more than 50% compared to 2024. Hyatt room signings increased by nearly 90% in India and by 46% in Indonesia. In Vietnam, Hyatt added more stay opportunities for guests and members with the addition of six Wink hotels to the Unscripted by Hyatt brand, and a seventh Wink hotel planned to open and join the Unscripted by Hyatt brand in 2027.
The Luxury pipeline includes more than 10,000 rooms. Hyatt also highlighted Lifestyle growth, mentioning the 170-room Andaz Lisbon (expected to open in March 2026) that will mark the brand’s debut in Portugal.
Following the acquisition of Playa Hotels & Resorts and the subsequent sale of its real estate portfolio, Hyatt’s Inclusive Collection plans to expand its presence in the Caribbean, Latin America, and Europe.
In 2025, Hyatt’s Classics portfolio saw signings for hotels in 12 new global markets. In Asia Pacific, the Classics portfolio signed nearly 6,000 new rooms.
Hyatt’s newest brands – Unscripted by Hyatt, Hyatt Select, and Hyatt Studios – made up more than 65% of all new U.S. deals in 2025.
LOS ANGELES — Every new year brings the possibility of a new start, and hoteliers attending the Americas Lodging Investment Summit are hoping that's the case in 2026.
Last year started off with more optimism as hospitality industry players generally expected a more business-friendly environment. After all the events of 2025 and less-than-stellar hotel performance, this year the optimism is back but tempered by the challenges hotel companies had to overcome.
Executives took the stage during the first day of ALIS to offer their perspectives on the road ahead. They pointed to major events, namely the World Cup games and America 250, as major drivers of future demand as well as better year-over-year comps as reasons for having a brighter outlook. They also spoke about the lessons they learned from all the disruption last year, giving them the experience they'll need to face potential future upsets in the coming months.
Quotes of the day
"This is probably the most difficult forecasting environment of my 30-something years in this industry, because every day something new happens that we didn't think of — that we never thought of, including people talking about the decoupling demand and GDP. ... It's something that it was just a very good indicator. It's not anymore."
—Isaac Collazo, senior director of analytics at STR
"One of the stats that I find fascinating is almost half of travelers are experimenting with AI to decide where they want to go, to really reduce the fragmentation of their traditional search and then make it happen. But less than 10% of them are actually following through to a booking, and so it's an opportunity to begin to close that gap."
—Matt Goldberg, CEO of TripAdvisor Group
The FIFA World Cup "should be terrific, but [we're] simultaneously engaging in every level of government and saying, 'We've got to make the world feel welcome coming to the U.S.' There may not be a more significant global sports event that draws the world and the eyes of the world, and when you have visitors asking legitimate questions about what their experience will be coming through customs and immigration, whether ... there will be a new entry fee, all of these sorts of things, those are big impediments to optimizing what should be a home-run opportunity for the lodging industry."
—Tony Capuano, Marriott International president and CEO, on the need for the U.S. to be welcoming to international travelers during the FIFA World Cup.
Editor's takeaways
Every conference is an opportunity to take the temperature of the hotel industry, and ALIS is the one that kicks things off each year. Everyone knows that 2025 didn't go as people initially thought it would, and through panel discussions and interviews, it's clear that it's made a impact on how hoteliers are approaching this year.
Hotel owners, investors and operators are heading into this year with a clearer idea of what obstacles could pop up to disrupt hotel performance. It's not exactly 20/20 vision, but it's better than being caught completely off guard.
Even without knowing exactly what's to come, it sounds like hoteliers are making sure they're flexible and ready to pivot should the situation call for it.
— Bryan Wroten, senior reporter
It's hard not to interpret that nationwide blizzard that disrupted traveling to Los Angeles for ALIS as a sign from the universe during an event that typically sets the tone for the full year across the hotel industry. But obviously there's more going on for hoteliers than short-term weather issues.
During the "Boardroom XXV: Confronting Change" session, IHG Hotels & Resorts CEO Elie Maalouf outlined a more long-term issue for hoteliers: the fact that the U.S. government doesn't prioritize the importance of travel and tourism despite its outsized effect on the broader economy.
"I just think we're blessed with so much domestic wealth that we just kind of take it for granted," he said. "Other countries feel like they don't have either the natural resources or the geopolitical advantages that we have — or the industries that we have in technology or finance — and so they value it more. It's not a reason not to value it. I think it's complacency, but because of other agenda items, it's hard to break through. We can't stop trying because it's just so much upside, and it's to the benefit, not just of U.S. Treasury but of individual hotel operators and mom-and-pop and families and restaurant owners. It's to the benefit of the local population."
— Sean McCracken, news editor
As an ALIS newbie, I've frequently heard that this conference tends to see a good deal of optimism from hoteliers. I was curious if, in light of the disappointing hotel performance from last year, we'd see a bit more muted perspectives. I don't think 2025 beat all the optimism out of the hoteliers in attendance, but there seems to be more realism to what speakers had to say about 2026 expectations.
CoStar and Tourism Economics released its forecast for 2026 and 2027, and revenue per available room is expected to grow 0.6% this year with average daily rate growing 1%. In some of my conversations with hoteliers today, I heard about how the industry is getting more comfortable with the uncertainty of last year and is looking forward to what some of the big demand drivers — like the upcoming World Cup — will do to help out performance.
— Natalie Harms, reporter
Comments
Post a Comment