Leading bull Nassetta loaded with conviction
McLEAN, Virginia – Need a business morale boost? All you have to do is listen to Hilton President and CEO Chris Nassetta for 10 minutes to become a bigger bull about hotel industry performance in 2026. He said it is hard not to feel good about the year at hand and that he will take the over versus the under on performance.
While he didn’t put it in writing, he told those gathered for Hilton’s 4Q25 earnings call that both macro- and microeconomics are telling him performance will be solid in 2026 and better than many are forecasting.
One would think it would be reflected in Hilton’s 2026 guidance, but not surprisingly there remains a bit of a hedge with newly published guidance suggesting 1% to 2% global RevPAR growth, strong 6% to 7% unit growth and 7.5% to 8.5% adjusted EBITDA growth.
Nassetta said he expects group, leisure and business transient to grow, in that order, driven by macro tailwinds with group up mid-single digits for 2026. He added that there is already a solid base of group business on the books and that it will be the outperformer of the year.
Just as he has said for the last six months, Nassetta reiterated his belief that the next couple of years should be better for business and he is starting to see more tangible data to support his thesis.
“We’re seeing a meaningful change from what we were seeing earlier in the fourth quarter and certainly in the third quarter,” Nassetta said. “Whether that’s sustainable or not, I don’t know, but it feels to me that if all of the other macro conditions continue to develop, it sort of has to be the beginning of a trend.”
Before that comment, Nassetta expanded on the macros he likes.
First, he said inflation does structurally continue to come down and might be lower than publicized if you factor in the lag effect of housing input. “That means the expectation, which I believe, is that [interest] rates will continue to come down, which will be stimulative and positive in a bunch of ways.”
Next, Nassetta said a “very big” deregulatory environment in the U.S. is a real positive for financial services, energy, AI, infrastructure, reshoring and more.
He said the new tax policy is “super business favorable and investment favorable” and will start to show benefits this year.
He followed by mentioning a “massive investment cycle,” the most obvious being the AI complex with more than $1 trillion projected spending.
Other things more quietly are reassuring to Nassetta is activity surround rare earth minerals, pharma, chips and core infrastructure spending that is just beginning. Then, he added that the U.S. is at the beginning of one of the greatest productivity booms in its history, again related to the AI complex.
“My belief then [during third quarter 2025] and now is that we will have economic growth picking up, and most importantly, because it impacts our business, that it would be broader based economic growth,” Nassetta continued.
While “the K-shaped economy” is getting all the attention, Nassetta added that he believes the U.S. is starting to see the first evidence of middle-class real wage growth. “That means people have more disposable income, and they will be spending more money, including on our products.”
He then pointed to better-than-expected December business and a strong January despite a week of big storms.
“It’s been better in the ways we’d want to see it,” Nassetta continued. “What does that mean? That means midscale, upper midscale, midweek and business transient.”
As for the micros, Nassetta referenced getting past Liberation Day and a big government shutdown that will lead to easier comps. Then there are events like World Cup and America 250 to stimulate travel.
“We have very good sight lines into the rest of February and even into March. And it feels good in all the ways I just described,” Nassetta added. “So, the reason for my increased optimism is data that I’m actually able to see – data that says what I hoped and thought would happen is starting to happen, and hopefully is sustainable.”
Other call highlights
Other interesting notes from Hilton’s earnings call:
Another upper midscale lifestyle brand between Motto and Canopy is under development and should be announced later this year. In addition, the “Undergraduate” brand is imminent, in the next 60 days, according to Nassetta, and has potential for some 400 markets that can’t afford a bigger Graduate property and needs something more in the midscale space but with a similar theme to Graduate. He also alluded to a student housing-related concept in the works along with a few other ideas.
Systemwide RevPAR for 4Q25 quarter was strongest in December, up 1.7% with strength in leisure and group and a meaningful pickup in business transient. Those positive trends continued into early 2026 with group leading and continued business transient improvement. Nassetta added that 2026 will be stronger than 2025, driven by continued strength in EMEA, improvement in APAC and an improvement in the U.S. driven by stronger economic conditions, major events, easier comps and continued limited supply.
While conversions accounted for roughly 40% of room openings in 2025, there is some momentum for new development, according to Nassetta. He said new development construction starts in the U.S were up over 25% in 2025, a trend they expect to accelerate even further into 2026. Globally for 2026, Hilton expects new development construction starts to be up over 20%, bringing them back close to 2019 levels.
While Nassetta said conversions will continue to be a bigger part of their future than they might have been on average over the last 10 years, he doesn’t expect them to stabilize at 40%. “They will be in the range of 30% to 40%, depending on what’s going on in the world,” he said. “But I don’t think anytime soon we’ll go back down into the 20s.”
Of course, AI was a topic of discussion and Nassetta said Hilton has three big buckets: efficiencies in the system to benefit GNA, which he said is lower than it was six, seven years ago and AI is already responsible for a part of that; labor-intensive hotel openings and creating massive efficiencies with dozen of use cases already being tested; and, of course, distribution, where Hilton is working with “all the big players” such as OpenAI, Google, etc.
“We’re developing the connectivity with those platforms, and I’m super optimistic about that,” Nassetta said. “Because we have a very modern tech stack, we are doing some really interesting things in natural search connected to booking and the experience within our own platforms, some of which you’ll start to see at some point in the second quarter.”
Nassetta added that Hilton has 40-some use cases surrounding distribution in the works with their AI partners.
NEW YORK CITY – The Chinese state-run Dajia Insurance Group is preparing to sell the Waldorf Astoria New York after sinking nearly $4 billion into the property, including Anbang Insurance Group’s $1.95 billion purchase in 2014 and a reported $2 billion lengthy eight-year and overbudget renovation.
The Wall Street Journal broke the story on Wednesday, citing a broader trend of Chinese firms divesting from major U.S. real estate assets due to policy pressures from Beijing to streamline overseas holdings. Others have suggested the sale is a result of balance‑sheet realities at Dajia Insurance Group and market timing. Investment bank Eastdil Secured is expected to market the property for what is expected to be in excess of $1 billion.
Waldorf's adjoining restaurants, shops and other amenities would be included in a sale, but the condos would continue to be sold separately, the Journal reported, citing people with knowledge of the plans.
“In addition to being way over budget in executing the renovation, the property was originally acquired in 2014 for an amount that many perceived at the time was significantly above market,” Daniel Lesser of LW Hospitality Advisors in New York told Hotel Investment Today. “Also factoring in a decade of carry costs it is highly unlikely that the seller will realize sales proceeds that come close to their basis in the deal. With this said I would not be surprised if the trophy property once again trades for a record amount for a non-gaming U.S. hotel asset.”
Lesser added, “Interesting that the property is being offered for sale with no proven cash flow shortly after reopening, and therefore will most likely be priced on a forward look only.”
The venerable Waldorf, which closed with some 1,400 rooms, today has 375 hotel rooms and 372 private residences with Hilton holding a 100-year management contract.
The Waldorf has re-opened to great fanfare over the last few months with Hilton using the tagline “The Greatest of Them All.”
When Waldorf Astoria New York opened its doors in 1931, the hotel set a record as the highest and largest hotel in the world, emerging as an Art Deco icon and a symbol of New York culture. The hotel encompasses 62,000 square feet of landmark-protected spaces that required special care during the restoration, which has been led by Skidmore, Owings & Merrill.
CHICAGO — Hyatt Hotels Corp. reported systemwide RevPAR growth of 4% in the fourth quarter and 2.9% for all of 2025, as well as net rooms growth of 7.3% as part of its fourth quarter earnings.
Hyatt said Q4 RevPAR growth was highest among its luxury and upper-upscale chains, while leisure transient remained the strongest customer segment.
“We ended 2025 with great momentum, marked by strong execution against our strategic priorities and continued progress toward becoming a more brand-focused organization. We achieved exceptional commercial and operating performance in 2025 and expanded our portfolio and network effect through disciplined transactions and strong organic growth,” said Hyatt President and CEO Mark Hoplamazian. “As we look to the future, we are focused on accelerating this momentum by further advancing the evolution of our brands, our talent, and our use of technology.”
Hyatt’s pipeline was approximately 148,000 rooms, up 7% year-over-year. 2025 signings in the U.S. were up approximately 30% YOY, including more than 25 Hyatt Select deals signed during the year. The company also said the pipeline of Hyatt Studios properties has grown to approximately 70 since the brand’s 2023 launch. Hyatt’s pipeline in Asia Pacific increased by 7% YOY, with strong activity in Greater China and India.
The company also announced its full-year 2026 outlook and projected systemwide RevPAR growth of 1-3% and NUG of 6-7%. Hyatt also projected gross fees of $1.295-$1.335 billion, an 8-11% increase YOY and adjusted EBITDA of $1.155-$1.205 billion, a 13-18% increase YOY.
Hyatt said in December that it closed on the sale of a portfolio of the Alua Atlántico Golf Resort, Alua Tenerife, and AluaSoul Orotava Valley in Spain for approximately $140 million. The company also entered into long-term management agreements for each property. Net proceeds were used to repay a portion of the $1.7 billion delayed draw term loan used to finance a portion of the Playa Hotels acquisition.
Analyst Michael Bellisario of R.W. Baird said Hyatt’s Q4 earnings were in line with expectations.
“Stronger RevPAR growth (+4%) caused total gross fees to be 1% ahead of our estimate. Lots of moving pieces in 2026 guidance, including an asset sale, slightly higher hurricane-related disruption, and the exclusion of JV EBITDA,” he said. “We suspect the buy-side will view the 1%-3% RevPAR range (for full-year 2026) as conservative.”
Other results
- Net income loss attributable to Hyatt was $20 million in Q4 and $52 million for the full year of 2025. Adjusted net income was $126 million in Q4 and $209 million for the full year of 2025.
- Gross fees were $307 million in Q4, an increase of 4.5% compared to the fourth quarter of 2024, and $1,198 billion for the full year of 2025, an increase of 9.0% compared to the full year of 2024.
- Adjusted EBITDA was $292 million in the fourth quarter, an increase of 14.6% YOY, or an increase of 3.8% after adjusting for assets sold in 2024 and the Playa Hotels acquisition. Full year 2025 Adjusted EBITDA was $1.159 billion, an increase of 5.8% YOY, or an increase of 7.4% after adjusting for assets sold and the Playa acquisition.
- During the fourth quarter, Hyatt opened 8,253 rooms, including the first Park Hyatt hotel in Mexico and Hyatt Studios Huntsville, the continued expansion of Hyatt’s newest extended-stay brand in the U.S.
- During Q4, Hyatt completed the Playa real estate transaction and used the proceeds to repay the amounts outstanding under the $1.7 billion delayed draw term loan, which was terminated upon repayment.
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