At a glance
*- Foreign direct investment has transformed industries from oil to electronics. Providing initial funding is just the start; cross-border deals that take root also transfer knowledge and spur ongoing domestic investment. Today’s patterns of greenfield FDI announcements signal a new shake-up.
*- FDI promises to shape advanced manufacturing, AI infrastructure, and the resources that power them. Since 2022, three-quarters of cross-border announcements have gone to these types of future-shaping industries as well as energy and mining projects—up from about half pre-2020. While not all announcements proceed, historically 60 to 80 percent have.
*- Pledged investment has increasingly followed geopolitical lines. Advanced economies announced more investment into one another—particularly to the United States—but decreased flows to China by nearly 70 percent. China pivoted from net investee to prominent investor in future-shaping industries, boosting announcements to Europe, Latin America, and the Middle East and North Africa by over two-thirds. Emerging economies attracted investment pledges from across the geopolitical spectrum.
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To win globally, multinationals are placing bigger bets. While
megadeals over $1 billion represent only 1 percent of cross-border deals, they account for half the total value—a jump from one-third five years ago. New data centers, semiconductor fabs, and battery factories don’t come cheap.
*- Stakes are high and change is afoot. If successful, FDI projects announced since 2022 could more than quadruple current battery manufacturing capacity outside China, nearly double the global data center capacity that powers AI, and draw the United States into the circle of top leading-edge semiconductor-producing nations. Patterns like these can help decision-makers anticipate the shifting geometry of global trade and the future map of international business.
Oil. Copper. Semiconductors. Foreign direct investment (FDI) has seeded and transformed these and many other global industries.
Cross-border investments in the late 19th century forged the global oil industry as money and know-how flowed from the United States and Europe to Baku (present-day Azerbaijan) and Sumatra (modern-day Indonesia), followed by investment around the globe in the 20th century.
Similarly, foreign investments shaped mineral-rich economies. For example, Chile’s position as a world-leading copper exporter for most of the past 140 years was catalyzed by multinational firms that developed vast open-pit mines and transferred geological, engineering, and operational expertise.
Following World War II, FDI played a critical role in spurring global manufacturing.
South Korea’s semiconductor industry first emerged from successive waves of FDI, particularly from US and Japanese multinationals, starting in the 1970s. FDI fueled China’s rise to become a leading manufacturing power as multinational enterprises built factories, transferred knowledge, and nurtured labor and supplier ecosystems.
What can FDI today tell us about global industry in the future
While tomorrow’s trade map is still being drawn, patterns may emerge from major companies’ announcements of greenfield FDI. These are cross-border investments that create fresh productive capacity such as new mines, factories, and data centers in new places.
FDI offers a window to what’s coming. Since 2017, the geometry of global trade has been shifting toward geopolitically closer partners, a trend that could accelerate, given new tariffs, security concerns, and more muscular, domestically driven industrial policies.
Our analysis of about 200,000 announced FDI projects from 2015 through May 2025 signals that geopolitics will play an increasing role in global trade (see sidebar “Methodology”). While FDI still bridges vast geographic distances, the average geopolitical distance of greenfield FDI announcements since 2017 shrank about two times faster than that of trade.
What does this mean for economies? Announced projects could more than quadruple battery manufacturing capacity outside China, almost double the global data center capacity that powers AI, and draw the United States into the circle of nations that are the biggest producers of leading-edge semiconductors.7 These are examples of how FDI may mold future-shaping industries while also rewiring cross-border economic ties.
This report explores shifts underway in FDI and offers foresight for decision-makers navigating a high-stakes environment of intensifying global economic competition and shifting geopolitical dynamics.
Announced FDI flows increasingly target industries that will shape the global economy and the resources that power them. Future-shaping industries include data centers powering artificial intelligence (AI), semiconductor fabrication facilities (fabs), electric vehicle (EV) and battery manufacturing facilities, and a range of other advanced manufacturing from pharmaceuticals to robots (see sidebar “What are future-shaping industries?”).
Together, future-shaping industries and resources accounted for three-quarters of greenfield FDI announcements from 2022 through May 2025. In inflation-adjusted, 2024-dollar terms, this was up from around 55 percent during the 2015 to 2019 period—the pre-COVID-19 period we use as a baseline for comparison (Exhibit 2). Such investments could substantially expand the capacity of these industries and shift their global footprint into new locations.
This shift reflects the structure of these sectors: They are winner-takes-most, technologically advanced, and capital intensive, so only a handful of global firms have the capabilities to compete. At the same time, governments, eager to host them and reduce reliance on geopolitically distant partners, are deploying powerful carrots and sticks. The result is a surge of announced megadeals (exceeding $1 billion) that drive most FDI growth and shape the global economy.
In contrast, annual announced investments in conventional industries have dropped by more than 30 percent. This category includes a wide range of basic manufacturing sectors—including consumer products, food and beverages, and textiles—as well as operational and professional services, a broad category that spans construction, real estate, logistics, and financial services.
This year has brought fresh uncertainty. International trade surged into the public spotlight in April 2025, when the United States unveiled large tariffs. Since then, the United States has announced trade deals with multiple countries. Some include pledges of future investment into the United States; details remain pending. Still, uncertainty persists globally, and firms may be waiting to act in hopes of more clarity down the road.
Against this backdrop, so far in 2025, the overall rate of FDI announcements has leveled off amid an even greater global focus on future-shaping industries. Announcements in these areas are on pace to reach $840 billion, versus the $490 billion average annual level between 2022 and 2024, driven entirely by increases in data centers globally and in semiconductor fabs, particularly in the United States.
In other major investment areas across advanced manufacturing, resources, and conventional industries, announcements are down, and FDI announcement rates have fallen to 20-year lows across all of China, emerging Asia, Latin America, the Middle East and North Africa (MENA), and sub-Saharan Africa (see sidebar “2025 announcements have focused on data centers and semiconductors”).
Announcements are, of course, not firm commitments, and not every potential project sees the light of day. Still, past studies have found that FDI announcements reliably predicted capacity creation on the ground, with realization rates between 60 and 80 percent. Our analysis finds that, since 2022, more than half of the largest announced projects in future-shaping industries are under construction or already operational. Among those that have not yet started construction, about half were announced after the beginning of 2025. As a general matter, it is too soon to gauge feasibility and progress of announcements made this year.
The biggest growth in announced investments, including in 2025, is for AI infrastructure and semiconductors
Growth in FDI announcements has not been uniform across future-shaping industries and resources. Rather, pockets of rapid growth in some subsectors have been responsible for the bulk of the expansion.
For instance, huge growth in AI and even bigger expectations for its future have accelerated cross-border investment in communications and software. Data centers—a key piece of infrastructure needed for AI—have accounted for more than 85 percent of announced greenfield FDI in this sector since 2022, or about $170 billion annually. Momentum escalated in 2025. If the early-2025 pace continues, data center announcements are on track to reach over $370 billion by year end.
Advanced manufacturing has accounted for one-quarter of global FDI announcements since 2022. One-third of that share, or about $115 billion annually, has been dedicated to new semiconductor fabs. Another third went to assembly lines for EVs and new gigafactories for batteries—which are primarily used in automotive manufacturing but increasingly relevant to broader applications.
The remainder was directed to other industries, including pharmaceuticals (notably drugs to combat obesity), electronics, and smaller but fast-growing FDI-related areas such as robotics and technologies linked to defense. In the first months of 2025, announcements directed to semiconductors surged threefold, while those for EVs dropped by over three-quarters, all on an annualized basis.
As energy- and material-hungry industries expand, resource sectors also are attracting growing investment. In metals and minerals, roughly 50 percent of announced FDI since 2022 (or $50 billion annually) went to projects to extract and refine minerals critical to advanced manufacturing—for example, copper, lithium, and nickel. Most of the other half went to the steel value chain, particularly to newer, lower-emissions steelmaking processes.
Energy-related announcements also have risen, but here the evolution over the past several years is more complicated. About three-quarters of the total since 2022, or nearly $330 billion annually, focused on expanding low-emissions technologies, doubling from 2015 to 2019 levels. Within this total, announced investments in established renewable sources, like solar and wind, and in nascent electrolytic hydrogen production have attracted roughly equal shares.
The remainder, or $105 billion annually, went to conventional fossil fuel projects, falling from more than $150 billion in the earlier period. In 2025, the landscape of FDI announcements in energy has shifted meaningfully; announcements in liquefied natural gas (LNG) and solar have remained about constant, while those going to low-emissions hydrogen, offshore wind, and oil and gas extraction have all dropped by around 70 percent. Announcements going to both nuclear and enhanced geothermal have more than doubled—but from such a low base that they hardly dent the aggregate energy FDI announcement numbers.
The shift toward future-shaping industries has occurred across all regions
Future-shaping industries and resources have gained importance, and not just for a handful of top-performing economies. This is a global trend, as increasing FDI inflows and outflows are announced across nearly all regions. Advanced economies, MENA, and China have, in aggregate, increased investment announcements in these sectors. Announced inflows have gone up everywhere, with the notable exception of China.
Conventional industries show the converse pattern: Announcements of FDI inflows and outflows are down in nearly every region. Only companies in Latin America and MENA have increased announced outflows, and only by a little.
FDI could create new hubs for future-shaping industries
Announcements suggest that greenfield FDI is emerging as an engine for future-shaping industries. These announcements have grown much faster than total capital investment, creating the potential to boost global capacity and to expand the worldwide footprint of these industries (see sidebar “FDI may be gaining importance relative to domestic investment”).
The impact could be many times higher outside the core hubs where these industries are concentrated today. If all announced projects come to fruition, new FDI-driven data center capacity outside the United States and Mainland China would be nearly twice the total 2022 capacity. For battery manufacturing outside Mainland China, it could be almost four times. And for leading-edge semiconductor capacity outside of South Korea and Taiwan, the FDI-driven increment could be nearly five times the total 2022 capacity. In all these cases, FDI-driven projects could account for the majority of total capacity growth outside core hubs up to 2030.
It remains uncertain how many of these announced investments will be fully realized, but the direction of travel is clear. The pipeline is progressing in a healthy way: Between one-half and two-thirds of the projects announced in these industries since 2022 are well underway, and many are already live. It remains to be seen what share will succeed; three of the top 20 EV projects have been put on hold, including a project in Canada worth about $10.5 billion and one in Mexico worth about $5 billion.
FDI’s potential near-term impact on resources industries is limited to specific segments
Greenfield FDI announcements in resources are small compared with total current production capacity, contributing at most an incremental increase of less than 10 percent over 2022 levels. After all, energy and mining are massive, well-established industries. Within specific segments, however, the FDI pipeline could still play a meaningful role.
In the case of fossil fuels, approximately 80 percent of conventional energy projects are already under construction or operational (Exhibit 5). Oil and gas firms have over a century of experience in announcing and developing cross-border energy projects, so it is perhaps not surprising that such a substantial percentage are already underway. However, even if all projects came online, their impact on the overall extraction of oil and gas would be modest and add, at most, less than 5 percent to total 2022 extraction capacity. But for LNG capacity, this number could be as high as 25 percent, potentially creating new energy corridors to replace geopolitically sensitive gas pipelines.
If announcements come to fruition, FDI also has the potential to play a substantial role in low-emissions projects that are big and generally more complex, including offshore wind and low-emissions primary steel. Most strikingly, announced low-emissions hydrogen projects would increase capacity over 100-fold above current, almost negligible, levels. However, none of the largest 20 electrolytic hydrogen projects announced since 2022 have reached the construction stage.
Multinational corporations are making bigger bets on future-shaping industries, driven by competitive urgency and a need to establish themselves as global players in key sectors. These bets are reshuffling geopolitical ties, with multinationals—especially from advanced economies—bringing investment closer to home.
Megadeals are increasingly important for firms in future-shaping industries
Megadeals, which are greenfield FDI projects valued at over $1 billion in inflation-adjusted terms, are growing in importance as firms race to compete globally in future-shaping industries.
About 200 megadeals annually—representing 1 percent of all deal announcements—now account for approximately half of announced greenfield FDI, a significant increase relative to the previous period, when they accounted for under one-third. In fact, this category of big deals drove almost all of the growth in announced FDI in future-shaping industries, as well as about 75 percent of the growth in resources.
At the same time, the importance of cross-border megadeals is rising, as they reflect the complex, capital-intensive, and highly competitive nature of future-shaping industries. Advanced manufacturing and digital infrastructure require specialized know-how, intellectual property, and highly skilled workforces to build out the infrastructure necessary to translate complex technologies into production.
This raises the price tag of these projects, meaning only a few multinationals have the capabilities, financial strength, and risk appetite to develop them. For example, leading-edge semiconductor manufacturing is arguably the most precise production process ever conducted, and a single fab may require an investment of at least $10 billion. Similarly, each gigafactory or multi-hundred-megawatt data center costs upward of $1 billion.
Winner-takes-most dynamics in rapidly evolving markets further push multinational organizations toward megadeals. Companies compete to establish global relevance, leading to an escalation in investment sizes. For instance, hyperscalers have engaged in an accelerating global investment race in the communications and software industry for over a decade.
Data center announcements have expanded in size by one and sometimes even two orders of magnitude over the past decade; the largest recent announcements are for gigawatt facilities, compared with the previous decade’s data centers, built to consume dozens of megawatts. And as data centers got bigger, so did deal sizes in the sector, which roughly doubled in average value.
Resource-related megadeals tend to be more complex projects with higher price tags. Oil and gas, including LNG projects, require significant capital and specialized expertise; for example, the announced LNG terminal in Calcasieu Parish, Louisiana, has a $17.5 billion sticker price. New, low-emissions projects for hydrogen or steel also require considerable investment and risk, as evidenced by the fact that nearly all announced hydrogen projects are megadeals, but none of the largest projects are yet under construction.
Public policy may play a role in the growth of megadeals across industries—or at least in the way they are announced. As economies compete to attract projects, stated incentives offered to firms have multiplied. For example, analysts found that announced FDI incentives reached record highs in 2023, particularly in advanced manufacturing, such as EVs and semiconductors.
Of course, not all FDI announcements involve the largest firms. About half of them are not megadeals, and in conventional sectors, roughly 80 percent of all deals are for less than $1 billion. Firms with ambitions to seize opportunities but lacking some of the financial muscle of their large peers can find space to invest. For instance, as megadeals grow, so will the size of their support ecosystems, including component manufacture, infrastructure, logistics, business services, financing, and more.
Multinational firms took different paths in response to geopolitical pressures
The rapid evolution of new technologies is not the only change afoot. Geopolitical tensions are higher than they have been in decades, and firms looking to expand abroad are taking note.
Greenfield FDI announcements have increasingly tracked geopolitical alignments. Indeed, the geopolitical distance of FDI announcements has dropped by more than 20 percent since just after the global financial crisis—from 3.6 in 2010 to below 3.0 as of 2025 on our ten-point scale. (For more on how we measure geopolitical distance, see sidebar “Defining geopolitical distance.”) Advanced economies’ investment in China fell from 10 percent to 2 percent of total FDI announcements by value, while flows among advanced economies increased from 35 percent to 45 percent.
Beneath the summary statistics lurks tremendous variability across the investment decisions of thousands of individual multinational corporations (MNCs). Each MNC faces its own set of considerations, depending on sector, geographic footprint, competitive position, cost of capital, and so on. Some firms meaningfully increased the geopolitical distance of their announced FDI.
Of the 500 firms with the largest announced greenfield FDI since 2015, about 30 increased the geopolitical distance of these announcements by at least three notches on our scale. (To give a sense of scale, this is equivalent to a US company shifting investments from Japan to Mexico or from Nigeria to Mainland China.)
While there was variability among firms in every country, multinationals from advanced economies tended to shift investment announcements closer to home. MNCs from emerging economies and China did not (Exhibit 9). Within advanced economies, Japanese and South Korean firms reduced the geopolitical distance of their investments the most, followed by companies based in Europe (the United Kingdom and the EU countries).24
The declines were driven primarily by advanced manufacturing firms, especially automotive and semiconductors. Firms in these sectors had previously expanded extensively into distant locations, particularly China, and have now shifted investment announcements to more closely aligned partners, mostly the United States and Europe.
Reconfiguration of FDI in advanced manufacturing and energy
Announced FDI in advanced manufacturing and energy projects increased in value and decreased in average geopolitical distance. Companies aimed to manage geopolitically sensitive dependencies by setting up new production hubs and potential trade corridors.
MNCs in advanced economies sought alternatives to advanced manufacturing supply chains by setting up new production hubs. For example, companies from Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan in the semiconductor and EV value chains announced investments in the United States while all but stopping new investments in China.
In energy, FDI has historically spanned wide geopolitical distances, as firms invested in conventional energy projects around the world. Since 2022, geopolitical distance of announced energy investments decreased, driven by a shift to lower-emissions projects, which tend to link geopolitically closer partners, including companies within Europe and within MENA. While conventional energy deals continued to span large geopolitical distances, they aimed to create alternatives to sensitive trade routes, such as shipments through the Strait of Hormuz and gas pipelines from Russia to Europe.
Retreat of FDI in conventional industries
Greenfield FDI announcements in conventional industries, such as basic manufacturing and operational and professional services, have declined in recent years relative to the 2015-to-2019 period.
This trend was most pronounced in the corridors between geopolitically distant partners, especially flows from advanced economies into China—declines not offset by significant growth elsewhere. As just one example, greenfield FDI announcements in China’s plastics sector since 2022 have been under $500 million per year, 80 percent less than levels from 2015 to 2019. At the same time, investment in plastics in the rest of the world also fell by roughly 50 percent.
New announced projects were largely between geopolitically aligned partners. Around 45 percent of investment in conventional sectors flowed between advanced economies, for example, to strengthen infrastructure and logistics networks. These included intra-European flows, such as German retailers expanding across continental neighbors and the United Kingdom and EU logistics firms developing regional warehouses and distribution centers. American MNCs announced increased investment in Europe in similar sectors.
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